Decomposing life expectancy changes in Spain in the COVID-19 pandemic and post-pandemic periods

Decomposing Life Expectancy Changes in Spain During COVID-19 Pandemic and Post-Pandemic Periods

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant decline in life expectancy at birth (LE) in Western European countries in 2020, with recovery only seen by 2023. Despite being one of the most affected countries, Spain maintains the highest LE in the European Union.

Study Objective

This study aims to break down the changes in life expectancy in Spain from 2019 to 2023 by age groups and causes of death, and to compare these patterns with the pre-pandemic period from 2010 to 2019.

Methods

Data on life expectancy and mortality rates by age and cause were obtained from the Spanish National Institute for Statistics (INE) for 2010, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023.
The Arriaga decomposition method was used to estimate age-specific contributions to changes in LE.
Age-specific changes were further attributed proportionally to major causes of death.

Results

Age groups over 20 years showed negative contributions to life expectancy in 2020 but mostly positive contributions in subsequent years up to 2023.
Interestingly, the most affected groups in 2020 showed positive overall contributions to LE changes during 2019–2023, while those under 45 years old continued to experience negative contributions.
Infectious diseases were the primary cause of the sharp LE decline in 2020, reducing it by −1.33 years overall, with a greater impact on men (−1.43 years) than women (−1.16 years).

"Infectious diseases were the main contributor to the sharp drop in life expectancy in 2020, accounting for −1.33 years in the total population, with a more severe impact in men (−1.43 years) than in women (−1.16 years)."

Author’s Summary

The study reveals how life expectancy in Spain was deeply affected by COVID-19, with infectious diseases driving declines notably in 2020, followed by gradual recovery differing across age groups and sexes.

BMC Public Health — 2025-11-04