Food insecurity: Numbers show severity of grocery price hikes

Food Insecurity: Numbers Show Severity of Grocery Price Hikes

Statistical analysis provides a clearer view of how grocery prices have risen, especially in the years following the pandemic. One of the most persistent aspects of post-pandemic inflation has been the growth in what the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index defines as “food at home” — essentially, groceries.

The Unique Nature of Groceries

Groceries differ from other essential expenses in two significant ways. First, they meet a fundamental human need, meaning almost everyone purchases them unless they rely entirely on restaurants or live in an institution. Second, grocery shoppers can choose from many substitutes — for instance, swapping a premium steak for a cheaper cut, buying store-brand items, or replacing organic milk with regular milk.

Groceries are essential, yet they offer multiple choices across a wide range of prices — something that housing and utilities cannot match.

Insights from Government Data

Government statistics shed light on how grocery expenses evolve over time. Besides the CPI, the Department of Agriculture releases four sets of monthly food cost data representing quartiles of consumer spending across different grocery categories.

Trends over the Last Decade

Reviewing grocery costs from the last ten years shows a clear pattern. Prices stayed relatively stable between 2015 and 2020, rose sharply in 2021, and increased again in 2022. However, when adjusted for inflation, they have leveled off since 2023.

“In ten years, the cheapest quartile saw grocery prices rise 55.8% without accounting for inflation.”

Author’s Summary

Grocery prices surged after 2020 but have largely settled since 2023, leaving households to adapt through substitution and budgeting strategies.

The Journal Gazette — 2025-11-08